Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.007879 0.008868 0.009949 0.011222 0.012682 0.014310 0.016266
2024-12-29 0.006254 0.007580 0.009157 0.011183 0.013732 0.016854 0.021002
2025-01-05 0.005603 0.007139 0.009071 0.011706 0.015243 0.019880 0.026506
2025-01-12 0.004804 0.006355 0.008393 0.011304 0.015414 0.021098 0.029710
2025-01-19 0.004227 0.005772 0.007879 0.011008 0.015624 0.022314 0.032991
2025-01-26 0.003855 0.005416 0.007617 0.011008 0.016214 0.024096 0.037308
2025-02-02 0.003683 0.005319 0.007699 0.011499 0.017569 0.027166 0.044067
2025-02-09 0.003395 0.005018 0.007445 0.011438 0.018036 0.028868 0.048786
2025-02-16 0.003189 0.004818 0.007318 0.011551 0.018781 0.031095 0.054721
2025-02-23 0.002948 0.004541 0.007042 0.011385 0.019025 0.032472 0.059286
2025-03-02 0.002799 0.004396 0.006961 0.011532 0.019817 0.034899 0.066203
2025-03-09 0.002622 0.004190 0.006759 0.011446 0.020173 0.036557 0.071830
2025-03-16 0.002381 0.003866 0.006345 0.010966 0.019790 0.036844 0.074858
2025-03-23 0.002235 0.003692 0.006176 0.010919 0.020232 0.038823 0.081927
2025-03-30 0.002190 0.003688 0.006302 0.011428 0.021818 0.043334 0.095524
2025-04-06 0.002017 0.003444 0.005976 0.011037 0.021535 0.043871 0.099888
2025-04-13 0.001874 0.003244 0.005715 0.010749 0.021430 0.044775 0.105313
2025-04-20 0.001783 0.003131 0.005604 0.010749 0.021935 0.047108 0.114823
2025-04-27 0.001758 0.003138 0.005723 0.011227 0.023543 0.052222 0.132787
2025-05-04 0.001670 0.003021 0.005591 0.011167 0.023931 0.054478 0.143350
2025-05-11 0.001609 0.002950 0.005542 0.011277 0.024724 0.057848 0.157876
2025-05-18 0.001523 0.002825 0.005376 0.011116 0.024850 0.059533 0.167709
2025-05-25 0.001475 0.002770 0.005348 0.011259 0.025734 0.063334 0.185048